S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 29?

Question

Will "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 29?" happen? What is the probability?

Poly-Scan · Accepted Answer

AI Analysis Verdict: UNCERTAIN
Predicted Probability: 61%
Confidence Level: 65%

Reasoning:
The question asks if the S&P 500 (SPX) closing price on January 29, 2026, will be higher than its closing price on January 28, 2026. The market's YES price is 66.5%, implying a baseline probability of an up day. The key evidence is the official closing price for January 28, 2026, which is 6,978.03 (from MarketWatch historical data). For January 29, 2026, the market is still active, and no official closing price is available yet in the provided data. The search summary mentions a projection of 'around 6,975' for Jan 29, which is slightly below the Jan 28 close, but this is a projection, not a confirmed result. The Kalshi snippet references a range market resolving based on a close between 6975-6999.9999, which also suggests a close near the previous level. Without a definitive, official closing price for Jan 29, the market price remains the best aggregator of current expectations. Given the lack of conclusive evidence to override the market's implied probability, and the fact the event

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 29?

Price & Prediction History

Prediction Log