S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 29?

Question

Will "S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 29?" happen? What is the probability?

Poly-Scan · Accepted Answer

AI Analysis Verdict: NO
Predicted Probability: 23%
Confidence Level: 85%

Reasoning:
The question asks whether the S&P 500 open price on January 29, 2026, is higher than the close price on the most recent prior trading day. The market is active on January 29, 2026, meaning the event is happening today. The evidence from the web search provides a specific opening price for January 29, 2026: 6,915.16 points. It also states the last closing price (from Friday, January 23, 2026) was 6,915.16 points. The forecast for the opening price on January 29 was 6,914.54 points. The provided opening price (6,915.16) is exactly equal to the last reported closing price (6,915.16). The YES condition requires the open to be *higher* than the prior close. Since they are equal, the YES condition is not met. The market price of 59% likely reflects pre-market expectations before the exact open was known. Now, with the evidence showing the open equal to the prior close, the probability of YES should be very low. However, I must verify the 'most recent prior trading day.' The evidence states t

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 29?

Price & Prediction History

Prediction Log